2010年5月7日星期五

Return With Us Now to Those Thrilling Days of Yesteryear When Chips Sales Were on the Rise and the Webvan IPO Seemed Like a Good Idea

2010 will likely be a better year for the semiconductor industry than 2009. In fact it may turn out to be the best growth in nearly a decade. According to research house iSuppli Corp, worldwide chip revenues are expected to rise to $300.3 billion, up 30.6 percent from $229.9 billion in 2009. The last time the industry saw that kind of growth was in 2000 when its revenues spiked 36.7 percent, driven upwards by the same forces that made selling 50 pound bags of kitty litter from Pets.com or putting money into the WebVan.com IPO seem like a wise idea. This year, though, the fundamentals driving growth are far more solid — strong PC, cell phone and LCD television demand, and an overall rebound in spending on consumer electronics. Said iSuppli’s Dale Ford, “Building on the continuing expansion in sales that followed the downturn in late 2008 and early 2009, the semiconductor industry is set to achieve remarkable revenue growth and record size in 2010.”

That said, it’s worth noting that revenue growth in 2010 will be “remarkable” largely because of a favorable comp to 2009 which was a truly crappy year for the semiconductor industry. And it’s worth noting, too, iSuppli’s currently rosy outlook could change according to econimic conditions. Said Ford, “The economy represents the biggest wild card in iSuppli’s 2010 forecast. While many indicators have shown sustained improvement, there are, however, a number of financial and economic trouble spots that could endanger the continued growth in the market before the end of 2010.”